With Christmas Day just one week away, residents across Waterloo Region are watching the forecast closely and wondering whether this year will deliver the classic holiday scene of snow-covered lawns and rooftops. While daytime temperatures are currently hovering above seasonal norms, meteorologists say there is good news for those hoping for a white Christmas.
Despite mild conditions in the short term, weather patterns expected over the coming days suggest that snow is likely to fall and, more importantly, stick around through December 25. According to 570 NewsRadio meteorologists, the odds are increasingly favourable that Waterloo Region will wake up to snow on the ground Christmas morning.
Mild Temperatures Raise Early Questions
December Warmth Prompts Seasonal Concerns
As of mid-December, daytime highs in Waterloo Region have reached around 5 degrees Celsius, prompting some concern that winter might be taking a temporary step back just days before the holiday. Such temperatures are mild for this time of year and often bring rain rather than snow, conditions that can quickly erase any existing snowpack.
The warmer air has led many residents to question whether a white Christmas is still possible or whether green lawns and wet pavement will define the holiday instead.
However, meteorologists caution against focusing too much on a single warm day when evaluating Christmas weather prospects.
One Warm Day Doesn’t Define the Season
While temperatures have briefly climbed above freezing, weather experts note that these conditions are not expected to persist. Instead, a shift back toward colder air is forecast shortly after, increasing the likelihood that any snow that falls will remain on the ground.
Meteorologist Confidence Grows for a White Christmas
Snow Chances Lined Up Over the Next Week
570 NewsRadio Meteorologist Carl Lam says the timing is now ideal to begin assessing white Christmas probabilities with greater confidence. With Christmas only a week away, forecast models are offering clearer signals than they typically do earlier in December.
“Now that we are a week out from Christmas, we’re keeping an eye on the probabilities of whether we will have a white Christmas across the region,” Lam explained.
According to Lam, several opportunities for snowfall are lined up in the days leading into Christmas.
“We do have a few chances for snow tomorrow, for Saturday, and it looks like for next Tuesday we could also get another little wave of snow too,” he said.
These multiple snow events significantly improve the odds that snow accumulation will be present by Christmas Day.
Cold Temperatures Support Snow Staying Put
Beyond snowfall itself, temperature trends play a critical role in determining whether snow will linger. Lam says that forecast temperatures are expected to remain largely below freezing once the mild air moves out.
“So the odds are looking pretty decent at this point that it all sticks around because those temperatures are going to be below the freezing mark,” Lam noted.
Only one day next week is currently expected to rise slightly above zero, which should not be enough to melt snow completely if accumulation occurs beforehand.
“So all in all, the odds are pretty good that we will have a white Christmas across the region,” Lam added.
Short-Term Weather: Rain, Wind, and Brief Warmth
Thursday Brings Rain and Strong Winds
Before colder air returns, Waterloo Region is expected to experience a brief stretch of unsettled weather. Thursday afternoon is forecast to reach a high of about 5 degrees Celsius, with rain showers likely developing by early evening.
Along with the rain, residents should be prepared for strong winds throughout the day.
Lam says winds from the southeast will be noticeable, with gusts expected to reach between 70 and 80 kilometres per hour. These gusts could cause minor disruptions, particularly for high-profile vehicles and outdoor holiday decorations.
Transition Back to Winter Conditions
While Thursday’s weather may feel more like early spring than mid-winter, meteorologists emphasize that it represents a temporary interruption rather than a seasonal shift. Colder air is expected to return soon after, setting the stage for snow chances later in the week and into early next week.
What Defines a White Christmas?
Snow on the Ground Is the Key Factor
A white Christmas is typically defined as having measurable snow on the ground on Christmas morning, rather than snowfall occurring during the day itself. Even a thin snowpack is enough to meet the criteria.
With several snow events possible and temperatures trending colder, meteorologists say conditions are aligning well to meet that definition in Waterloo Region this year.
Timing Works in Favour of Snow Lovers
The fact that snow chances are spread out over multiple days increases confidence. Instead of relying on a single storm to deliver last-minute snow, the region has multiple opportunities to build and maintain a snow cover.
This pattern also reduces the risk that a single warm day or rainfall event will eliminate snow entirely before Christmas arrives.
Historical Context: December Warm Spells Are Not Unusual
Past Records Show Fluctuating December Weather
While this week’s mild temperatures may feel unusual, historical records show that December warm spells are not unprecedented in Waterloo Region.
The record high for December 18 was set in 1967, when temperatures reached 10 degrees Celsius. Compared to that extreme, this year’s high of around 5 degrees is notable but far from record-breaking.
Such fluctuations are a normal part of Ontario’s winter climate, where brief warm-ups often occur between colder periods.
White Christmases Still Common
Despite occasional mild stretches, Waterloo Region typically experiences enough cold weather in December to support snow cover around Christmas. Meteorologists say this year’s forecast aligns well with that historical pattern.
Implications for Travel and Holiday Plans
Drivers Should Prepare for Changing Conditions
As temperatures dip back below freezing and snow returns, road conditions could change quickly. Drivers are encouraged to stay informed about forecasts, especially during periods when rain transitions to snow.
While Thursday’s rain may clear some snow temporarily, subsequent snowfall combined with colder temperatures could lead to icy conditions on untreated roads.
Holiday Events Likely to Feel Wintry
For those planning outdoor holiday activities, tree lighting events, or seasonal gatherings, the forecast suggests winter weather will return in time for Christmas festivities.
Cold temperatures and snow-covered landscapes are expected to create a more traditional holiday atmosphere across the region.
Forecast Confidence Improves as Christmas Nears
Shorter Forecast Range Brings Clarity
Weather forecasts become more reliable as the timeline shortens, and with Christmas just days away, meteorologists say confidence is increasing.
While exact snowfall amounts and timing may still shift slightly, the overall pattern of colder temperatures and multiple snow chances supports a strong probability of a white Christmas.
Monitoring Continues
Meteorologists will continue to monitor evolving weather systems and refine forecasts as Christmas approaches. Residents are encouraged to check daily updates for the latest information, particularly if travel plans are involved.
Conclusion: A Snowy Holiday Looks Promising
Despite a brief period of mild weather and rain, Waterloo Region residents can remain optimistic about the prospect of a white Christmas in 2025. Multiple chances for snowfall, combined with predominantly below-freezing temperatures, suggest that snow is likely to be on the ground by December 25.
While Thursday’s warm, windy conditions may temporarily soften the winter feel, colder air is poised to return quickly. With forecast confidence growing and snow opportunities lining up, this year’s Christmas is shaping up to deliver the classic winter backdrop many hope for during the holiday season.
Leave a Reply